Starting hand Grouping
The most
common mistake the novice players make is playing too many hands.
Playing any two-suited cards, any ace or king, or weak hands like 76
off-suit is a sure way to lose money over the long run.
A good player is disciplined, and waits to play good
cards. Playing smart poker is frequently boring. A good player typically
sees the flop less than 25% of the time, the rest of the time they are
studying their opponents and observing what sorts of cards they
typically play.
Sklansky and Malmuth have published (in
Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players, a must-have book) one of
the most widely regarded groupings of starting hands.
Group 1: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs
Group 2: TT, AQs, AJs, KQs, AK
Group 3: 99, JTs, QJs, KJs, ATs, AQ
Group 4: T9s, KQ, 88, QTs, 98s, J9s, AJ, KTs
Group 5: 77, 87s, Q9s, T8s, KJ, QJ, JT, 76s, 97s, AXs, 65s
Group 6: 66, AT, 55, 86s, KT, QT, 54s, K9s, J8s, 75s
Group 7: 44, J9, 64s, T9, 53s, 33, 98, 43s, 22, KXs, T7s, Q8s
Group 8: 87, A9, Q9, 76, 42s, 32s, 96s, 85s, J8, J7s, 65, 54, 74s, K9,
T8
A few notes on the above groupings - ATs means Ace Ten
suited, AXs means any Ace and "X" card that are suited.
In order to understand when to play any of the above
hands, you must be conscious of your position and the other players
actions before you. (The position is in reference to where you are
relative to the button.)
Probability is
a huge factor in texas hold 'em. Players use odds to determine
their actions. The chances of finishing a flush or a straight,
the probablity of getting an overcard, the percentage of times
you're going to flop a set to match your pocket pair are all important
factors in poker. Knowledge of these statistics is key to winning.
In online games especially with very few (if any) tells, statistical
knowledge becomes the main factor when choosing whether to bet,
call, or fold.
Terms
that you'll hear whenever you're talking about poker odds... |
| Outs |
The number of cards left in the deck that will improve your
hand. |
"I had four spades on the turn, so I had only 9 outs
left to finish that flush." |
| Pot Odds |
The odds you get when analyzing the current size of the
pot vs. your next call. |
"There's $100 already in the pot, and only another
$10 bet coming at me, so my pot odds are good if I hit that
flush." |
| Bet Odds |
The odds you get as a result of evaluating the number of
callers to a raise. |
"With a 1 in 5 chance of hitting
it, and knowing all six of these guys are will call my bet,
my bet odds are good too." |
| Implied Odds |
The odds you are getting after the assumed result of betting
for the remainder of the hand. |
"Since I think these guys are going to call on the
turn and river, my implied odds are excellent." |
The Odds chart below shows the percentage and
odds of making your hand based on your number of outs.
Out Chart
|
Number of outs |
After
Flop
Two
cards to come |
After
Turn
One
card to come |
|
|
Percentage |
Odds
to1
against |
Percentage |
Odds
to 1 against |
|
1 |
4.3 |
22.4 |
2.2 |
44.5 |
|
2 |
8.4 |
10.9 |
4.3 |
22.3 |
|
3 |
12.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
14.4 |
|
4 |
16.5 |
5.1 |
8.7 |
10.5 |
|
5 |
20.3 |
3.9 |
10.9 |
8.2 |
|
6 |
24.1 |
3.1 |
13 |
6.7 |
|
7 |
27.8 |
2.6 |
15.2 |
5.6 |
|
8 |
31.5 |
2.2 |
17.4 |
4.7 |
|
9 |
35 |
1.9 |
19.6 |
4.1 |
|
10 |
38.4 |
1.6 |
21.7 |
3.6 |
|
11 |
41.7 |
1.4 |
24 |
3.2 |
|
12 |
45 |
1.2 |
26.1 |
2.8 |
|
13 |
48.1 |
1.1 |
28.3 |
2.5 |
|
14 |
51.2 |
0.95 |
30.4 |
2.3 |
|
15 |
54.1 |
0.85 |
32.6 |
2.1 |
|
16 |
57 |
0.75 |
34.3 |
1.9 |
|
17 |
59.8 |
0.67 |
37 |
1.7 |
|
18 |
62.4 |
0.6 |
39.1 |
1.6 |
|
19 |
65 |
0.54 |
41.3 |
1.4 |
|
20 |
67.5 |
0.48 |
43.5 |
1.3 |
You will find that you can easily remember a few of the most common
situations for outs such as the four flush or straight draw but
there has to be an easier way than memorizing the figures for
every number of outs. The good news is that there is a way to
get a good estimation of the odds.
The Rule of Four -Two.
The rule of four-two, as I like to call it, is an easier way
to figure the odds for any situation where you know your outs.
It is not completely accurate but it will give you a quick "ballpark"
figure of your chances for making a hand. Here is how it works.
With two cards to come after the flop you multiply your number
of outs by four. With one card to come after the turn, you multiply
your number of outs by two. This will give you a quick figure
to work with. If you have a four-card flush after the flop you
have nine outs. With two cards to come, you multiply the nine
by four and you get 36 percent chance of making the flush. The
chart shows the true odds at 35 percent. With one card to come
you multiply nine by two and get 18 percent. The chart shows that
the true figure is 19.6. It is not completely accurate but it
is pretty close, and it is an easy calculation to do in your head.
|